Nuclear endgame in France ?

For those who do not know French politics very well, it is hard to understand how powerful the nuclear lobby in this country has been and continues to be. The thermonuclear program, alongside foreign policy, is one of those (very) rare policies about which there has always been a very broad consensus among French political parties and, more broadly, population. Nuclear power was good for national energy independence and ensured a cheap supply of electricity not only to national consumers but also to neighbor countries through exports. Until very recently, it was unconceivable for a French government (even when a Green was Environment Minsiter from 1997 to 2002) to even think about thinking about a nuclear phase-out. The French "nucleocracy" was so powerful that even Tchernobyl did not change anything to this consensus. Consequently, nuclear power still represents 78% of France's electricity production, and gets the vast majority of public funds for energy research and development.

Alas, times have changed. And dramatically so. Though it is always a tricky exercice to insert current events in the longer trend of history, the year 2011 might well be the beginning of the end for France's nucleocracy. First, there was the spectacular accident at Fukushima. Pretty much everything has been written about it, except maybe that it has induced a shift in French public opinion. For the first time, a majority of French citizens declare they want a progressive nuclear phase-out. Another, rather small, incident is building up pressure on France's nuclear complex : the Marcoule events of a few days ago. Though it was a small incident compared to Fukushima, it clearly demonstrates to the French people that, despite all the propaganda talks about French reactors being the safest in the world, well accidents also happen here. Another factor needs to be taken into account when analyzing why public opinion is no longer supporting nuclear power : the European exemples. Germany has announced a complete phase-out by 2022, Italian voters have refused a return of nuclear power, and Austria has repeatedly lobbied against nuclear power in Europe. 

Finally, I think public opinion is losing faith in the entire nuclear industry, in part because it has proven utterly incapable of building the "revolutionary" EPR reactor in France and in Finland. And even more recnetly, Siemens' decision to quit nuclear industry is yet another symbol that this is an energy of the past.

As a result of these events, pressure is mounting on France's political elite to start planning for a phase-out. For probably the first time, government officials have announced that, as part of the country's long-term energy planning, several scenarii would be proposed, including one with a complete phase-out by 2040 or 2050. One can of course expect this "phase-out scenario" to prove that ditching nuclear power would be uneconomical, dangerous etc. After all, there's always an agenda behind such a report, and NGOs have understood it well by refusing to take part in the creation of these scenarii.

But this totally misses the point. This announcement proves that a new political dynamics is emerging in France and that talking about a phase-out is no longer taboo not only for the Socialist Party (see my post on this, in French) but also, though very reluctantly, for Sarkozy's UMP. Obviously, this President will not support a phase-out of nuclear power. But this President's reelection chances look fairly slim at the moment, and a left-wing President would undoubtedly govern with the Greens for which nuclear power is anathema. In short, something big is about to happen in France. It may be a question of months or years, but I think public opinion will never give back the same level of support to this industry again. And it would be right to do so, considering the large economic benefits that renewables could yield in France. Interesting times ahead !