In two weeks, the 17th conference of parties (COP17) to the UNFCCC will start in Durban, South Africa. This conference should (and probably won't) design a system that will either continue or replace the current international emissions reduction system, the Kyoto Protocol. As the world prepares for another disappointment that will once again demonstrate the irresponsibility of world leaders, we have been receiving an avalanche of bad news on the climate front recently. Clearly, if there is a fight against climate change, we are not even close to winning it.
The IEA published its flagship annual report, the World Energy Outlook 2011, a few days ago nd its conclusions are very clear : the world is headed for an irreversible climate change unless spectacular policy changes occur in developed and developing countries. The IEA expects temperatures to rise at least 3.5°C (up to 6°C) by the end of the century, whereas the "safe' level, and the internationally recognized objective, is 2°C. I was surprised by the tone of the press release for this report, for it was unusually unequivocal and strong-worded. See for yourself :"Without a bold change of policy direction, the world will lock itself into an insecure, inefficient and high-carbon energy system". Basically, the world has uttery failed to change the way it produces energy and developing countries are pumping more and more CO2 into the atmosphere. Things are not going well on the climate front, mainly by lack of political will, and also because of a deeply flawed sense of priorities.
Other bad news from the energy front : the carbon intensity of global GDP is growing for the first time since 2004. This is the conclusion of a recent PWC report which warns that "the results call into question the likelihood of global decarbonisation ever happening rapidly enough to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius". Of course this result is in part a consequence of the return of international growth after the global economic crisis. But, in my opnion, it is a clear demonstration that countries are not investing enough in the decarbonisation of their economies. Even countries like China, that have a stated goal to reduce the carbon intensity of their GDP (for China, that objective was stated a few days before COP15 in Copenhagen) saw their GHG emissions grow faster than their GDP.
Alright, so things are definitely not going in the right direction. Is there any hope though ? I'd say that there is. Look at what recently happened in the US with the XL Keystone Pipeline. A bit of background : that pipeline was supposed to carry oil extracted from the Canadian Tar Sands, the most environmentally destructive engineering project on Earth, to the US. After months of protests and mobilization from top US environmentalists, President Obama decided to temporarily bury the project. American experts agree that, if Obama gets reelected, the project is dead. I guess we shouldn't read too much into this, as political priorities during an election year are always a bit messed up, especially for an incumbent who's having trouble mobilizing its base, but this can be interpreted as a demonstration that a movement is born in the US, and that climate change can no longer be ignored by officials, however inefficient and irresponsible they may be.
I don't know if there's hope, but i sure hope there is.
The IEA published its flagship annual report, the World Energy Outlook 2011, a few days ago nd its conclusions are very clear : the world is headed for an irreversible climate change unless spectacular policy changes occur in developed and developing countries. The IEA expects temperatures to rise at least 3.5°C (up to 6°C) by the end of the century, whereas the "safe' level, and the internationally recognized objective, is 2°C. I was surprised by the tone of the press release for this report, for it was unusually unequivocal and strong-worded. See for yourself :"Without a bold change of policy direction, the world will lock itself into an insecure, inefficient and high-carbon energy system". Basically, the world has uttery failed to change the way it produces energy and developing countries are pumping more and more CO2 into the atmosphere. Things are not going well on the climate front, mainly by lack of political will, and also because of a deeply flawed sense of priorities.
Other bad news from the energy front : the carbon intensity of global GDP is growing for the first time since 2004. This is the conclusion of a recent PWC report which warns that "the results call into question the likelihood of global decarbonisation ever happening rapidly enough to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius". Of course this result is in part a consequence of the return of international growth after the global economic crisis. But, in my opnion, it is a clear demonstration that countries are not investing enough in the decarbonisation of their economies. Even countries like China, that have a stated goal to reduce the carbon intensity of their GDP (for China, that objective was stated a few days before COP15 in Copenhagen) saw their GHG emissions grow faster than their GDP.
Alright, so things are definitely not going in the right direction. Is there any hope though ? I'd say that there is. Look at what recently happened in the US with the XL Keystone Pipeline. A bit of background : that pipeline was supposed to carry oil extracted from the Canadian Tar Sands, the most environmentally destructive engineering project on Earth, to the US. After months of protests and mobilization from top US environmentalists, President Obama decided to temporarily bury the project. American experts agree that, if Obama gets reelected, the project is dead. I guess we shouldn't read too much into this, as political priorities during an election year are always a bit messed up, especially for an incumbent who's having trouble mobilizing its base, but this can be interpreted as a demonstration that a movement is born in the US, and that climate change can no longer be ignored by officials, however inefficient and irresponsible they may be.
I don't know if there's hope, but i sure hope there is.
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